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Ruth Lea CBE has been Arbuthnot Banking Group’s Economic Adviser since 2007 and was an Independent Non-Executive Director from 2005-2016.

Ruth co-founded Global Vision in 2007 and was Director until 2010, and was previously the Director of the Centre for Policy Studies (from 2004 to 2007), Head of the Policy Unit at the Institute of Directors (from 1995 to 2003) and Economics Editor at ITN (from 1994 to 1995).  Prior to ITN she was Chief UK Economist at Lehman Brothers, Chief Economist at Mitsubishi Bank, worked for 16 years in the Civil Service (the Treasury, the DTI, the Civil Service College and the Central Statistical Office) and was an economics lecturer at Thames Polytechnic (now the University of Greenwich).

She is the author of many papers and articles on economic issues and has been a Governor of the London School of Economics and Council Member of the University of London.

Tel: 020 8346 3482
Mobile: 07800 608 674
Email: ruthlea@arbuthnot.co.uk

 

From the desk of Ruth Lea

Economic insight and financial comment related to the ever-changing financial landscape and the economic world at large。

Economic Perspectives

11th May 2020

Economic Insight - 11 May 2020

The coronavirus crisis: first steps to lockdown relaxation and the Bank warns of major GDP fall in 2020
In this Perspective Ruth Lea, Economic Adviser to the Arbuthnot Banking Group, discusses recent key developments relating to the coronavirus crisis:
Press Release

The coronavirus crisis: first steps to lockdown relaxation and the Bank warns of major GDP fall in 2020

Date: 11th May 2020

The coronavirus crisis: first steps to lockdown relaxation and the Bank warns of major GDP fall in 2020
In this Perspective Ruth Lea, Economic Adviser to the Arbuthnot Banking Group, discusses recent key developments relating to the coronavirus crisis:
    • The Prime Minister’s speech on 10 May outlined the first conditional steps towards lockdown relaxation. Specifically, he said those workers not able to work at home, “should actively be encouraged to go to work”. He will be setting out more details of his plans in Parliament on 11 May.
    • The Bank of England’s MPC left monetary policy unchanged at their May meeting, with a bias towards further easing.
    • The Bank released its “illustrative scenario”, which suggested GDP would fall 14% in 2020, but recover by 15% in 2021. A fall of 3% in 2020Q1 is followed by a fall of 25% in 2020Q2, but GDP recovers relatively rapidly in 2020Q3, and rises further in 2020Q4 and into 2021.
    • The Bank projected a surge in the unemployment rate to around 9% in 2020Q2, before easing gradually back. The unemployment rate is expected to average 8% in 2020, edging down to 7% in 2021 and declining to 4% in 2021.
    Survey and data update:
    • The ONS’s latest Business Impact of Coronavirus Survey (BICS) confirmed nearly quarter of respondents had temporarily closed or paused trading, while three-quarters continued to trade. Concerning the workforce, 28% of the workforce had been furloughed under the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS), of which the accommodation & food service activities sector had the highest proportion, with 73%. Less than 1% of the workforce had been made redundant so far.
    • The Markit PMIs for services and construction, as well as manufacturing, were dire in April, pointing to a sharp contraction in output in 2020Q2.
    • The SMMT reported that new car registrations collapsed in April, they were down 97% (YOY).
    • According to the Halifax, house prices fell 0.6% (MOM) in April, to be 2.7% higher (YOY).
    International developments:
    • The European Commission’s May forecast was exceptionally pessimistic. Eurozone GDP is projected to fall by 7.7% in 2020, though partly recover (by 6.3%) in 2021. Within the Eurozone, the economies in Greece, Italy and Spain are projected to contract by around 9½% this year, and in France by over 8%, whilst in Germany and the Netherlands GDP may fall by 6½%.
    • In the US, non-farm payrolls fell by 20.5mn, and the unemployment rate rose to 14.7%, in April.
    Ruth Lea said, “As the Prime Minister outlines the first steps to relaxing the lockdown, the scale of the economic damage continues to emerge. The Bank warned in its “illustrative scenario” of a possible fall in GDP of 14% in 2020, with the unemployment rising to 9%. Next week (13 May) sees the release of the first estimate for GDP for 2020Q1, with expectations of a fall of about 3-5% (QOQ). But this fall will surely be dwarfed by the contraction in 2020Q2. Indeed the Bank suggests the decline could be 25% (QOQ).”

For full story: http://www.djlkxw.com/economic_perspectives_group.html

Press enquiries:

Arbuthnot Banking Group PLC:

Ruth Lea, Economic Adviser
07800 608 674, 020 8346 3482
ruthlea@arbuthnot.co.uk
Follow Ruth on Twitter @RuthLeaEcon

Maitland:
Sam Cartwright
020 7379 4415
Jais Mehaji
020 7379 5151
arbuthnot@maitland.co.uk
Download full article

4th May 2020

Economic Insight - 4 May 2020

The coronavirus crisis: the debate shifts towards the exit strategy
In this Perspective Ruth Lea, Economic Adviser to the Arbuthnot Banking Group, discusses the key issues as the debate shifts toward the exit strategy:
Press Release

The coronavirus crisis: the debate shifts towards the exit strategy

Date: 4th May 2020

The coronavirus crisis: the debate shifts towards the exit strategy
In this Perspective Ruth Lea, Economic Adviser to the Arbuthnot Banking Group, discusses the key issues as the debate shifts toward the exit strategy:
    • A second review of the lockdown measures is due on Thursday 7 May. It is expected there will be some relaxation of the measures, albeit modest ones.
    • The Prime Minister announced that he would set out a “comprehensive plan” for “restarting” the economy, reopening schools and helping people travel to work following the coronavirus lockdown, week beginning 4 May.
    • It has been reported the government will release a series of papers this week outlining its approach on “restarting” the economy, safely and gradually.
    • The current pandemic, and the government’s response, has affected both the supply and demand sides of the economy.
    • In considering future developments, there are two major questions.
    • The first question relates to how/when the lockdown will end and how will the economy respond. There are, of course, many unknowns concerning the nature of the exit strategy. Concerning the economic response, there should not be a large permanent reduction in supply potential after lockdown, providing the government’s extensive support packages have effectively mitigated the damage to the supply side. Demand should recover (at least partly) after lockdown but recovery will be held back by several factors, including impaired balance sheets and higher unemployment. Taking the supply and demand sides together, the economy should begin to recover fairly soon after lockdown. But it is highly unlikely just to “bounce back”, making up all lost ground quickly.
    • The second question relates to the long-term effects. These include an enormous increase in government borrowing this year, increased state intervention (at least temporarily) and a possible further pushback against globalisation and multilateralism.
    Business update:
    • The Chancellor announced a new Bounce Back Loan scheme for SMEs on 27 April.
    • The ONS’s latest Business Impact of Coronavirus Survey (BICS) showed nearly quarter of respondents reported they had temporarily closed or paused trading, while just 0.5% had permanently ceased trading. Concerning government support schemes, the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) was the most popular government scheme applied for.
    • The especially vulnerable sectors to lockdown continue to include non-essential” retail; transport; accommodation and food services; and arts and recreation.
    UK economic update:
    • In their main-case scenario, NIESR forecast GDP falls by around 5% in 2020Q1 and 15% in 2020Q2. On the assumption of a progressive relaxation of stay-at-home measures, GDP then recovers some of the lost ground and almost re-attains its 2019Q4 level by 2021Q4, but there are significant downside risks. GDP is expected to fall by 7.2% (YOY) in 2020, followed by growth of 6.8% in 2021.
    • Households repaid £3.8bn of consumer credit (net) in March, the largest net repayment since the series began, whilst mortgage approval statistics fell by over 20% in March.
    • The Markit/CIPS PMI fell to a record low of 32.6 in April, down from 47.8 in March.
    • The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) said car production in March fell 37.6% (YOY).
    • Note the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet next week, when updated economic forecasts are expected.
    International developments:
    • US GDP fell 4.8% (QOQ, annualised) in 2020Q1.
    • Eurozone GDP fell 3.8% (QOQ) in 2020Q1, whilst French GDP fell 5.8%, Italian GDP fell 4.7% and Spanish GDP fell 5.2%. German GDP data are not yet available.
    • The ECB stepped up its support measures, including the new pandemic emergency longer-term refinancing operations (PELTROs).
    • EU leaders agreed a €540bn emergency package for the EU. In addition to the emergency measures, the EU has agreed to set up a recovery fund, closely tied to the EU27’s seven-year budget (covering the years, 2021-27).
    Ruth Lea said, “We remain in unknown territory. But as the lockdown enters the seventh week, we may expect some guidance from the government as to its exit strategy, expected to be gradual, this week. There may even be some relaxation of the restrictions this week, albeit modest.

    Concerning the economy’s response to the end of lockdown, we are, of course, some way from knowing. But, providing the government’s support schemes have effectively mitigated the lockdown’s damage to business, the permanent reduction in supply potential should be containable, albeit unwelcome. The impact on demand following lockdown is harder to judge, but it should, at least partly, recover quite quickly. All in all, and taking the supply and demand sides together, the economy should begin to recover fairly soon after lockdown. But to expect it just to “bounce back”, making up all lost ground quite quickly, is unduly optimistic. NIESR’s assessment that GDP will almost have attained its 2019Q4 by 2021Q4, with downside risks, looks all too plausible.”
    For full story: http://www.djlkxw.com/economic_perspectives_group.html

    Press enquiries:

    Arbuthnot Banking Group PLC:

    Ruth Lea, Economic Adviser
    07800 608 674, 020 8346 3482
    ruthlea@arbuthnot.co.uk
    Follow Ruth on Twitter @RuthLeaEcon

    Maitland:
    Sam Cartwright
    020 7379 4415
    Jais Mehaji
    020 7379 5151
    arbuthnot@maitland.co.uk
Download full article

123456 (2019)(2018)

Comment, at a glance

Halifax
house prices fall in April
7 May 2020

According to the Halifax, house prices fell 0.6% (MOM) in April, to be 2.7% higher (YOY). Halifax noted that “the impact of the measures taken to curtail the spread of coronavirus started to filter through to the housing market in April”. They noted that market activity was almost at a complete standstill.

House-moving restrictions were initially introduced by the Government on 23 March (updated on 26 March) in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Government advised “house moves should be delayed unless moving is unavoidable”.    

Source: Halifax, “House prices fall in April as coronavirus restrictions take hold”, 7 May 2020. 

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ONS’s latest BICS
quarter of businesses temporarily ceased trading
7 May 2020

The latest BICS (Business Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Survey) related to the period 6 April-19 April (Wave 3), which closed on 3 May 2020.

Of the 6,114 businesses in the UK that responded (out of a sample size of 17,623) to the BICS, 23% of businesses that responded they had temporarily closed or paused trading, while 77% reported continuing to trade during this period. Concerning sectors, 80% of businesses in the arts, entertainment & recreation sector reported a temporary pause to trading, whilst 81% had done in the accommodation & food services sector.

Other findings were:
·       Turnover: 58% of all businesses continuing to trade indicated their turnover had decreased, while 30% reported that their financial performance had not been affected.
·       Workforce: of all businesses continuing to trade, 19% of the workforce had been furloughed, whilst 73% were working “as normal”.

Source: ONS, “Coronavirus and the economic impacts on the UK”, 7 May 2020. 

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Monetary Policy Committee
unchanged policy
7 May 2020

At the meeting ending on 6 May 2020, MPC members voted as follows:
·       Maintain the Bank Rate at 0.1%, unanimously.
·       The Bank of England should continue with the programme of £200bn of UK government bond and sterling non-financial investment-grade corporate bond purchases, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, to take the total stock of these purchases to £645bn. Seven members voted for this proposition, whilst two members voted to increase the programme by an extra £100bn.

The minutes of the meeting noted that for the majority of MPC members judging that the existing stance of monetary policy was appropriate, the existing programme of asset purchases was not yet complete. Moreover, more information on a number of important assumptions underpinning the scenario analysis (as discussed in the Bank’s Monetary Policy Report), and so determining the economic outlook, was likely to become available over the coming weeks. There was, therefore, value in waiting for that information. But for all of these members (seven), the prospective weakness in employment and inflation, and downside risks around aspects of the medium-term outlook, might necessitate further monetary policy action to support the economy in the future.

The minutes also noted that the Bank’s Decision Maker Panel (not separately released) had reported that sales were expected to be around 45% lower than normal in 2020Q2, and investment 50% lower. Although, in normal times, changes in investment intentions might be expected to be realised fairly gradually, the abrupt closure of many production and construction businesses meant that the 2020Q2 drop in investment spending was likely to be sharp. Housing investment was also likely to see a marked drop.

Source: “Bank of England, “Monetary policy summary and minutes of the MPC meeting ending 6 May 2020”, 7 May 2020.

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Bank’s Monetary Policy Report projects 14% GDP fall in 2020
7 May 2020
The Bank noted that the unprecedented situation meant that the outlook for the UK and global economies was unusually uncertain. It would depend critically on the evolution of the pandemic, and how governments, households and businesses respond to it.

Recognising these uncertainties, the MPC constructed an “illustrative scenario”, based on stylised assumptions, rather than a forecast. The scenario incorporated a very sharp fall in UK GDP in 2020H1 and a substantial increase in unemployment in addition to those workers who were furloughed currently (with the rate rising to 9% in 2020Q2)。 Given the assumed path for the relaxation of social distancing measures, the fall in GDP should be temporary and activity should pick up relatively rapidly。 Nonetheless, because a degree of precautionary behaviour by households and businesses was assumed to persist, the economy takes some time to recover towards its previous path. CPI inflation was expected to fall further below the 2% target during the second half of this year, largely reflecting the weakness of demand, bolstered by weak oil prices.

The key data relating to the illustrative scenario are shown in table 1 (below). Specifically, GDP is projected to fall by 14% in 2020, though pick up by 15% in 2021 and grow by 3% in 2022. Concerning the quarterly path of GDP during 2020, the Bank assumes that GDP falls sharply in 2020H1. It is expected to be close to 30% lower in 2020Q2 than it was in 2019Q4 (a fall of 3% in 2020Q1 followed by a fall of 25% in 2020Q2). But it recovers relatively rapidly in 2020 Q3, as social distancing measures are gradually lifted, and rises further in 2020Q4.

The Bank noted the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic on demand and supply:
·       Demand remained lower than it would have been in the absence of the pandemic, however, partly reflecting the impact of continued caution from households and businesses. The greater uncertainty households face about the outlook, including about job prospects, is assumed to take some time to dissipate, leading to a degree of precautionary saving. That is consistent with the path for unemployment which falls back only gradually, after rising sharply in 2020。 Businesses’ uncertainty about the outlook is similarly assumed to remain elevated for some time, which dampens investment over the scenario. Tighter financial and credit conditions also weigh on investment spending.
·       The near‑term shock had a longer‑term effect on the supply capacity of the economy. The falls in investment weigh on the productive capacity of the economy over time。 Tighter credit conditions also impair productivity by reducing how efficiently capital is allocated across the economy. In addition, productivity is dampened by less on‑the‑job training and innovation. Consequently, the supply capacity of the economy is a little lower than it otherwise would have been by the end of the scenario period.

 

Table 1 Bank of England: illustrative scenario, YOY (%), unless otherwise indicated

 

2019

2020

2021

2022

GDP

1

-14

15

3

Household consumption

1

-14

15

4

Household saving ratio (%)

6

17

10

9

Business investment

1

-26

19

12

Net contribution of trade (%, GDP)

0

0

0

-1

 

 

 

 

 

Unemployment rate (%)

4

8

7

4

Hourly labour productivity

0

-1

2

0

Average weekly earnings

3

-2

4

2

CPI inflation

1.8

0.6

0.5

2.0

Bank Rate (%)

0.8

0.1

0.2

0.1

 

 

 

 

 

Source: Bank of England, “Monetary Policy Report, May 2020”, 7 May 2020.

 

Read more
Markit construction survey shows collapse in activity in April
6 May 2020
The Markit/CIPS Construction Total Activity Index fell from 39.3 in March to 8.2 in April, signalling a rapid downturn in overall construction output. The latest reading was the lowest since data were first collected in April 1997. The previous record low was 27。8 in February 2009。

 All three main categories of construction work experienced a survey-record fall during April, with declines in house building (index, 7.3) and commercial activity (7。7) exceeding that for civil engineering (14。6)。 Lower volumes of construction output were almost exclusively attributed to business closures in April, with survey respondents often commenting on complete stoppages of activity on site due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.

Source: Markit Construction PMI, “Survey-record decline in construction work amid site closures due to COVID-19 pandemic”, 6 May 2020.

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Markit survey shows unprecedented fall in services in April
5 May 2020

The Markit/CIPS services Business Activity Index (PMI) registered 13.4 in April, down sharply from 34.5 in March, to signal a rapid decline in UK service sector output. The earlier “'flash” reading for April was 12.3. Prior to the last two months, the survey-record low stood at 40。1 in November 2008.

Reduced volumes of activity in April were, of course, overwhelmingly attributed to either business closures, shutdowns among clients or shrinking sales due to a slump in non-essential spending。 14% of survey respondents, however, commented on unchanged business activity since March.

The Composite Output Index is a weighted average of the UK Manufacturing Output Index and the UK Services Business Activity Index (PMI). It was 13。8 in April, compared with 36。0 in March and was by far the lowest recorded since the series began in 1998. The final index reading was slightly higher than the earlier “flash” reading of 12。9 in April。 Service sector activity (13.4) dropped at a slightly steeper rate than manufacturing output (16.3), with the latter supported to some extent by food and drink, pharmaceuticals and other healthcare-related production.

Markit commented “April’s PMI data highlights that the downturn in the UK economy during 2020Q2 will be far deeper and more widespread than anything seen in living memory. Historical comparisons of the PMI with GDP indicate that the April survey reading is consistent with the economy falling at approximately 7% (QOQ), but we expect the actual decline in GDP could be even greater, partly because the PMI excludes the vast majority of the self-employed and the retail sector.”

Source: Markit/CIPS services PMI, “Slump in UK service sector output as COVID-19 pandemic continues in April”, 5 May 2020.

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Markit survey for UK manufacturing fell to record low in April
1 May 2020

The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS PMI fell to a record low of 32.6 in April, down from 47.8 in March. Markit said the public health emergency caused by the outbreak of COVID-19 caused substantial disruption across the UK manufacturing sector and its supply chains in April. Manufacturing production, new orders and employment all contracted at the fastest rates in the 28-year survey history, while vendor lead times lengthened to the greatest extent so far. The global pandemic also hit overseas demand, leading to a series-record drop in new export business.

The fall in the Manufacturing PMI (which is a composite of five indices) was, however, softened by a comparatively modest reduction in stocks of purchases and the aforementioned record lengthening of vendor lead times (which has an inverse contribution to the PMI level). Survey data were collected between 7-27 April.

Source: Markit/CIPS, “Output, new orders and employment fall at record rates as COVID-19 emergency continues”, 1 May 2020.

Read more
Record repayment of consumer credit in March, and total mortgage approvals fell over 20%
1 May 2020

These data relate to March and are, therefore, partly affected by the impact of COVID-19.

Concerning lending to individuals the Bank of England announced: 
·       Households repaid £3.8bn of consumer credit (net) in March, the largest net repayment since the series began. Within this, credit cards accounted for £2.4bn of net repayments and other loans and advances accounted for £1.5bn. The growth rate slipped to 3.7% (YOY), compared with February’s 5.8%. The Bank noted “...within this (total), the annual growth rate of credit card lending fell to -0.3%, the first negative annual growth since the series began. The annual growth rate of other loans and advances fell to 5.6%”. (Money and credit statistical release, table B).
·       In the mortgage market, evidence of a decline in housing market activity started to become apparent in March mortgage approval statistics, which fell by over 20% (table E). This was a broad based fall across reasons for applying for a mortgage. Approvals for house purchase fell by 24% to 56,200, their lowest level since March 2013; and approvals for remortgage fell 20% to 42,600, the fewest since August 2016. ‘Other’ approvals, which includes for withdrawing equity, fell back 17%, to 12,000. Approvals for house purchase had been 73,700 in February.
·       Net mortgage borrowing by households was £4.8bn in March, compared with £4.3bn in February. The annual growth rate for mortgage borrowing ticked up to 3.6% (3.5% in February) (table D). Mortgage borrowing tends to lag approvals, however, so this strength is likely to reflect strength in approvals in previous months.

Concerning net finance raised by Private Non-Financial Corporations (PNFCs) (table F):
·       UK businesses borrowed £34.1bn of loans (net) from banks in March. The Bank also noted that UK businesses’ deposits rose by £34.0bn in March. Both were record highs.
·       Businesses can also raise funds from financial markets (via instruments such as bonds and commercial paper, or with equity) as well as from banks as loans. In March, firms repaid £1.9bn to financial markets, reflecting £1.0bn net repayment of commercial paper and £0.5bn net repayment of bonds, whilst net issuance of equity was £0.1bn.

Concerning net bank lending to non-financial businesses (which includes lending to businesses in the public sector) (table G):
·       Total net lending was £32.8bn in March, whilst the growth shot up to 8.2% (YOY), compared with 1.1% in February.
·       Loans to SMEs were just £0.3bn, whilst loans to large businesses rose £32.5bn.
·       The growth rate of lending to SMEs was 1.2% (YOY, 0.9% in February), whilst the growth rate to large companies rose to 11.8% (1.1% in February).

 

Source: Bank of England, “Money and credit: March 2020”, 1 May 2020.

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ONS’s latest BICS shows Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) most popular Government scheme
30 April 2020

The ONS’s latest Business Impact of Coronavirus Survey (BICS) related to the period 6-19 April (Wave 3), after the introduction of the Government’s “Stay At Home measures” (23 March).

Around 5,159 businesses responded out of a sample size of 17,623. 1,222 (23.7%) reported they had temporarily closed or paused trading, while 3,912 (75.8%) were continuing trading. 24 (0.5%) had permanently ceased trading. 1 in 4 (24%) of surveyed businesses in the UK continuing to trade reported that their turnover had decreased by more than half the normal level.

The BICS asked respondents for their experience of the government schemes at the point of completing their questionnaire, with responses collected up until 27 April (rather 6-19 April). (The Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme went live on 20 April, but businesses could still indicate whether they had applied or received this scheme.)

Table 1 shows how rapidly businesses have applied to the available schemes。 The Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme was the most popular government scheme applied for, with 66% of all responding businesses。 Table 1 also includes what government schemes they had received up until 27 April。 The Deferring VAT Payments Scheme was the scheme with the largest percentage of businesses reporting they had received this, at 42%。

Table 1 Government schemes take-up: businesses continuing to trade, paused trading, to 27 April 2020 

 

Applied

Received

 

Continuing trading

Paused trading

Total

Continuing trading

Paused trading

Total

Not applied

25.7

8.6

21.7

19.9

19.6

19。9

Accredited finance arrangements

7.8

17。3

10.1

1。6

2。6

1.8

Government-funded small business grant or loan schemes

8.8

19.3

11。3

5.4

12.3

7。0

HMRC Time To Pay Scheme

17。7

36.6

22。2

13.1

26。8

16.4

Deferring VAT payments

52.6

66。9

56.0

39.8

49.3

42.1

Business rates holiday

17.9

57.9

27.4

11。5

42.4

18.8

Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme

61.0

82.2

66.0

17。9

20.7

18.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Source: ONS, “Coronavirus and the economic impacts on the UK”, 30 April 2020.  

 


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Retail sales fell 5.1% in March
24 April 2020
Retail sales declined 5.1% (MOM) in March, to be down 5.8% (YOY). The March fall was largest fall since the series began as many stores ceased trading from 23 March following official government guidance (the lockdown) during the coronavirus pandemic.

The reporting period for March 2020 was from 1 March to 4 April 2020 meaning that two weeks of the five-week trading period was under social distancing measures introduced as the government moved into the “delay” phase of the coronavirus response.

Clothing store sales saw a sharp fall, at negative 34.8% (MOM). Food stores and non-store retailing were the only sectors to show growth in the monthly volume series in March 2020, with food stores seeing the strongest growth on record, at 10.4%.

Online sales as a proportion of all retailing reached a record high of 22.3% in March 2020 as consumers switched to online purchasing following the pandemic.

Retail sales fell 1.6% (QOQ) in 2020Q1, to be down 1.8% (YOY) (table 1). The ONS commented that there were strong declines in non-food stores and fuel.

Source: ONS, “Retail sales, March 2020”, 23 April 2020. 

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